Student retention has become a critical concern for higher education institutions in Brazil, especially in distance learning. According to the 16th Higher Education Map in Brazil, by Semesp, the annual dropout rate in distance learning reached 41.6% in 2024 (41.9% at private institutions and 32.2% at public ones), against 24.8% in in-person programs.
Looking at the accumulated picture, the same survey shows that, for the 2020-2024 cohort, dropout reaches 68.1% among distance-learning students at private institutions. The 2024 Higher Education Census, by Inep, adds to the urgency: distance learning now accounts for 50.7% of undergraduate enrollments in Brazil, up 5.6% from 2023.
To help colleges keep their students enrolled until graduation, we prepared this post to show some indices that help monitor student retention, as well as tips to make classes more dynamic and attractive for these students.
Student retention in distance learning in practice
Student retention is a set of actions aimed at keeping learners in the same institution until graduation, which is critical given the high dropout rates in higher education, especially in distance learning. To understand and reduce dropout, it is essential to track key performance indicators (KPIs), such as retention rate, grades, attendance and NPS, which help identify risks and guide interventions. In addition, investing in more dynamic classes, using different media formats, interactive tools and student feedback strengthens engagement and brings academic, reputational and financial benefits to the institution.
- Monitor the retention rate and identify retained students.
- Track average grades and attendance to anticipate dropout.
- Measure satisfaction and referral intention with NPS.
- Make distance-learning classes more dynamic and interactive.
- Strengthen educational marketing and financial balance through retention.
What is student retention?
First, it is necessary to understand what student retention is. It is a process formed by a grouping of measures that encourage the student to remain in that educational institution until graduation.
Retaining students is not such a simple process, since it is necessary to monitor the performance and development of students during their academic period and then identify possible causes for future dropouts.
What are the reasons behind student dropout in distance learning?
The reasons behind student dropout in distance learning rarely come down to a single cause. Lack of time to balance study and routine, a sense of isolation from not having in-person contact with classmates and professors, and content that feels disconnected from the student's reality are among the most common factors. Remote study demands more self-direction from the learner, and that is exactly what tends to be missing when the institution isn't following up closely.
Given this, many institutions are investing in ways to make these students who are learning remotely able to complete their courses at the same college. For this, KPIs can be great allies.
What are KPIs?
In case you still don't know what KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) are, here's a quick explanation: also known as key performance indicators, they are a way of assessing whether strategies or actions previously established by a company are managing to achieve its stipulated objectives.
For example: you have an organization and you want to measure customer satisfaction with the purchase of a product offered by it. A KPI that could be used in this situation is the Customer Satisfaction Score (CSAT).
Caption: Measuring the right KPIs and following up closely is what sustains student retention in distance learning.
Are KPIs and metrics the same thing?
Well, the truth is that metrics serve as a foundation for KPIs. Performance indicators manage to go beyond the information provided by metrics, which is why they are important for structuring the business strategy.
Thinking about the previous example, one type of metric would be the level of customer satisfaction in services or products, while the KPIs to measure this same objective would be CSAT, abandonment rate, average service time, among others.
What are the KPIs needed for student retention in distance-learning institutions?
Now that you already know what KPIs are, it's time to delve a little deeper into this subject and explain which are the indicators that help you in the mission of student retention:
Retention rate (RFE)
Also known as student flow retention rate, is a KPI that measures how many students at your educational institution do not complete their training within the expected period.
To calculate it, divide the number of retained students (students who remain in courses after enrolling) by the number of enrolled students (students who attended at least one class during the evaluated period) and multiply the result by 100.
At your educational institution, if there are many students taking longer than the expected period to graduate, this may mean that they are experiencing some kind of difficulty and that, at some point, they may drop out of the course.
Average student grades
It is also important to evaluate the average grades of students, either by class or individually. A student with declining averages indicates that he is having difficulties keeping up with the pace of studies and, therefore, tends to drop out of college.
Retention in distance learning starts before enrollment, with the quality of who comes in, which makes student acquisition the first step of any retention policy.
Attendance rate
This indicator assesses whether students are fulfilling the workload stipulated by the educational institution. In this way, it is possible to identify those students who are missing classes the most (which may already indicate course abandonment) or which subjects are being more difficult for students of that particular training.
Net Promoter Score (NPS)
Refers to the ability of a student to indicate their educational institution to other people. Having this positive KPI means that your students are so satisfied with the services they receive that they want others to enjoy them too.
In addition, this indicator can also give a view related to the safety and image that your college is transmitting, as well as how engaged your students are with their training.
To find the NPS value, students must answer a questionnaire, in which they must mark, from 0 to 10, the possibility of recommending their college to other people.
|
Indicator |
What it measures |
Warning sign |
|
Retention rate (RFE) |
How many students complete on time |
Steady decline period over period |
|
Average grades |
Academic performance over the course |
Consecutive drops in the same subject |
|
Attendance rate |
Presence and workload completion |
Recurring absences in one subject |
|
NPS |
Willingness to recommend the institution |
Score below 6 on the recommendation question |
Table: Together, these four indicators form the minimum retention dashboard for distance learning.
How can classes influence student retention?
However, just analyzing the KPIs we indicated above is not enough to make your students stay in the course until graduation; it is also necessary to invest in strategies that make them want to finish their degrees.
For this, it is interesting to analyze the reasons that are leading to school dropout and how the educational institution can help students in each of these issues. For example: if students are finding the content too difficult or discouraging, it is interesting to invest in ways to make classes dynamic.
How to optimize classes and make them more dynamic?
But what can educational institutions do to make classes more dynamic in order to overcome the barrier of distance that learning remotely presents? Check out some options below:
Invest in different media formats
The truth is that distance learning is not a limiting education system, but an expansive one: it is possible to use different media formats such as audio, video and image to transmit content in a differentiated and interesting way.
Use tools
Kahoot!, for example, is a tool that allows you to apply gamification elements to online classes. Students can answer questions live and the tool can rank those who get the most questions right.
Ask for feedback
It is also worth asking students for feedback on their preferred ways and strategies for the learning process. Thus, the entire academic community of the institution can work together in favor of education.
What is Brazil's new distance-learning regulation?
Since 2025, Decree 12,456/2025 and Ordinances 378 and 381/2025 from Brazil's Ministry of Education reshaped the rules for distance learning, changing which students institutions need to focus on retaining. The three recognized formats are now in-person, hybrid and distance learning, each with its own requirements.
Law, Medicine, Nursing, Dentistry and Psychology programs are now restricted to in-person delivery. Teaching degrees offered as hybrid or distance learning must now include at least 30% in-person and 20% synchronous class time. Institutions have up to two years to comply.
In practice, this means part of today's distance-learning students in Brazil will move between formats within the same program, and a student in transition between formats is a student at risk of dropping out. It's worth reviewing, program by program, whether any of them is affected.
How do a CRM and an AI SDR agent help with student retention?
A well-configured HubSpot CRM cross-references the four KPIs in this article with each student's contact history, turning marketing management into action: when attendance drops alongside grades, the CRM can automatically trigger a follow-up sequence, instead of waiting for the student to request a leave of absence. It's also in the CRM that the contact history lives, helping the institution map the reasons behind dropout case by case, instead of treating students as just a number.
That's where AI SDR agents come in: they talk to at-risk students over WhatsApp and SMS, identify the reason behind the drop in engagement, and escalate the case to a human when needed. According to Gartner, agentic AI is projected to resolve up to 80% of common service interactions on its own by 2029, freeing up the retention team for the cases that truly need a human touch.
As part of a broader educational marketing strategy focused on retention, this combination of CRM and AI agent typically costs less than any acquisition campaign needed to replace a student who drops out, and it also generates data to compare conversion rates across channels for re-engagement.
What does my educational institution gain from student retention?
A mistake that many managers make is to invest only in attracting students, forgetting about the retention of those already enrolled. See below some benefits of ensuring your students graduate from your institution:
Improves educational marketing
Everyone would like to study at a college whose students don't want to leave, wouldn't they? Therefore, ensuring a high student retention rate can be a positive point to work on in educational marketing.
Allows better development of students
Changing colleges is not an easy task, since students need to readapt to the structure of classes, professors and the dynamics of the institution itself. In this way, those who remain throughout the course in the same place are able to develop better.
Brings professors closer to students
The very quality of education is improved through student retention, as university professors are able to teach their classes in a more personalized way, as they are intimate with the class and know it.
It guarantees the financial balance of the institution
Retaining students is also a great way to guarantee the financial health of your organization, after all, it is cheaper to keep a student who is already enrolled until the conclusion of his course than to attract new students.
Now that you know how to analyze and invest in student retention, it is worth enlisting the help of an agency specializing in educational marketing to help you bring more and more students to your institution.
Visit our website and find out how we can help you attract and retain more distance learning students through data-informed marketing strategies!
Frequently asked questions about student retention in distance learning
Is it worth investing in student retention in distance learning now?
It is, and the time is now: with annual dropout at 41.6% and a new regulation redistributing students across formats, waiting to act costs more than measuring the four KPIs in this article and setting up a CRM follow-up sequence today.
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